Quantum Threat Looms: Migrate Now
The era of practical, large-scale quantum computers is closer than most realize. When they arrive, Shor’s algorithm will shatter the mathematical foundations of today’s public-key cryptography—RSA, elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC), and Diffie-Hellman key exchange—in minutes rather than billions of years. Any data encrypted today with these algorithms, from financial transactions to state secrets, can be harvested now and decrypted later in a “harvest now, decrypt later” attack that nation-states are already executing.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) recognized this over a decade ago and began standardizing post-quantum cryptography (PQC). In August 2024, NIST finally released the first three production-ready PQC algorithms (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, and SLH-D) and one more (FN-DSA) is expected imminently. Major technology providers—Google, Cloudflare, Apple, Signal—have already begun deploying hybrid schemes that combine classical and post-quantum algorithms to achieve “crypto-agility.”
Yet adoption remains dangerously slow. Most governments and enterprises are still running pure RSA/ECC systems. The U.S. government’s own deadlines (CNSI 2023-01, NSM-10) mandate federal agencies to inventory cryptographic assets by the end of 2025 and begin migration, but many lack the budget, expertise, or executive urgency. In the private sector, inertia is even worse: legacy systems, embedded devices, and long procurement cycles mean full migration could take a decade or more for many organizations.
The risk is asymmetric and catastrophic. A single breakthrough by a well-funded actor—whether a nation-state or a rogue lab—could render decades of encrypted archives readable overnight. The only defense is proactive migration to PQC standards now, while quantum machines are still noisy and small.
Governments and enterprises that treat post-quantum migration as a compliance checkbox rather than an existential priority are gambling with their future security. The clock is ticking louder every day.
