IMF: AI Boom to Cushion Global Economy Despite Trade Disruptions

The global economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026 despite ongoing trade and tariff-related disruptions, with the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence acting as a key stabilizing force, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF noted that productivity gains and investment momentum driven by AI are helping to offset persistent headwinds from fragmented trade flows and geopolitical uncertainty.

While comparisons to the dot-com era are inevitable, the IMF struck a more measured tone. Its analysis suggests that potential overvaluation in the broad U.S. equity market is significantly lower than during the late 1990s technology bubble—estimated at roughly half the level seen at the peak of the dot-com episode. This indicates that, although AI-related assets are commanding high valuations, they are more firmly grounded in tangible revenue prospects, widespread adoption, and real productivity improvements.

However, the IMF cautioned that AI’s economic benefits will not be evenly distributed. The report highlighted risks to jobs and wages, particularly for workers in roles vulnerable to automation or algorithmic substitution. Without policy intervention, AI could exacerbate income inequality and labor market polarization, even as it boosts aggregate growth.

To address these challenges, the IMF called for proactive policy responses. These include lowering barriers to AI adoption for firms, investing in digital infrastructure, and prioritizing large-scale reskilling initiatives. Helping workers acquire relevant, future-oriented skills will be critical to ensuring that AI-driven growth translates into broad-based economic gains rather than concentrated benefits.